Britain is a conservative place, they say, so when in doubt the electorate will tend to stick with the status quo. For the EU Referendum, the assumption has been that the Remain campaign has the advantage. We’re all too confused by claims and counter-claims about the pros and cons of Brexit, so in the end we’ll settle for what we know.
Recognising this conservative bias, the Leave campaign is trying hard to reshape our definition of the status quo. Staying in the EU, they claim, is the riskier gamble, because the EU is changing so radically. The status quo is a free trade zone with cooperation between European states on security, the environment and other supra-national issues. We can have all that by leaving the EU, they promise. Leave = Status Quo. On the other hand, if we vote to stay in the EU we will be subjected to a process of ever greater political integration and ultimately we will find ourselves in a very different (and possibly unpleasant) place. Remain = Leap into the Dark.
It is a bold campaign that seeks to redefine the status quo, but so far the Outers are doing a good job of it. The response from the Remain campaign should be: “Possibly. But if the EU status quo really does change that much, we can always vote to leave at a later stage.” We should be judging whether we want to be part of the EU as it is now, not as it might be in some version of the future.